Still, by the end of that year, there were rumblings at NBC that Leno might lose his Tonight Show gig in favour of someone who was also loved by viewers: David Letterman, who had a show on NBC immediately following the Tonight Show, and who was threatening to go to CBS and take their 11:30 slot. Jay was understandably upset and said he’d probably leave the network if they decided to give Tonight to Dave and try to place Jay on another show. Of course, in the end Dave went to CBS and Jay kept his show.
Fast forward 18 years, and we see a strikingly similar situation with Jay and Conan. The difference is that, NBC in 1992 decided the fair and just thing would be to stick with the new guy and give him a proper shot. In 2010, evidently, it’s out with the new and in with the old.
To say that Conan has failed as Tonight Show host (as at least one NBC exec has already said in no uncertain terms) misses some important points. One point to consider is ratings. The Tonight Show’s ratings have apparently fallen by roughly one third in the seven months since Conan took over for Jay, a steep drop to be sure (nevermind that Leno’s 10 p.m. show has been labeled by many experts as an unmitigated disaster after only four months). But Jay also experienced a bit of a dip when he first took over from Johnny. Not to mention, Conan and Letterman have consistently placed close to each other in the ratings since last summer. And more importantly, Conan has led Letterman for ratings in the 18-49 age category. I’m no TV expert, but aren’t those the viewers likely to keep watching Conan as he settles in to the Tonight Show host’s seat over the coming years?
Another factor is familiarity. Even before Leno was given the keys to Johnny’s office in 1992, he’d had five years of exposure to Tonight Show viewers under his belt, from guest hosting the show in Carson’s absence some 40 times. (Here's a clip of him somewhat awkwardly interviewing Roy Orbison and KD Lang in 1988). Conan’s total number of stints as guest host of the Tonight Show before taking over from Jay: zero. And while you could make the argument that Conan’s own show ran for 16 years, which should constitute an adequate rehearsal for the transition, the Tonight Show is clearly a very different animal with very different core viewers.
Jay turns 60 this year, and he will undoubtedly need to be replaced with someone younger when he decides to step out of the spotlight in a few years. NBC will then need to find someone who is younger and somewhat popular with viewers.
The thing is, they already have someone younger, who is popular with viewers. His name is Conan. He’s 47. What happens when Conan leaves NBC over this debacle? Do the NBC suits then let Carson Daly and Jimmy Fallon battle it out for the title of Least Worst Talk Show Host and put the winner on Tonight by default?
Gawd, could NBC have f*cked this up more than they have?
Although, I admit it's entertaining watching all the late-night hosts slam each other with their half-serious "jokes".
If anything, I see Conan coming out of this much stronger than he would if he stayed on the Tonight Show, and Leno ending up in a worse position than if this whole issue wouldn't have come up in the first place.
Conan's apparently negotiating a $30-40 million buyout from NBC and a new 11:30 show on FOX. Jay, on the other hand, has never had to go up directly against Conan in the ratings, and he's pretty much alienated every single Conan supporter, whether or not they watched Jay before.